Manage Your Own Money

By Daniel J. Clemons

Daily & Weekly Predictor Updated June 9, 20162016

Welcome to my Manage Your Own Money Blog

First, the good news.  Oil is above $50 a barrel, which is good for my oil positions XLE and CVX.

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The S&P 500 has had a amazing run since the Double Bottom at 1810 in January and February.

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Where does the market go from here?  On June 9, 2016, Standard and Poor’s noted, “Should the S&P 500 soon recapture its old closing high at 2131, the P/E on forward 12-month operating EPS (through Q1 2017) will be above 17.5X, revisiting the valuation level last seen in April 2004. On a trailing 12-month basis, the market multiple will be 18.1X, or close to fair value according to the “Rule of 20,” which looks at P/Es in relation to inflation. To move much beyond the old high, however, EPS growth forecasts need to improve, or inflationary expectations must decline. The lower growth and higher unemployment now forecast by the Philly Fed, compared with prior estimates, don’t auger well for a ramp-up in EPS growth estimates. Yet CPI (annual-avg./annual-avg.) is seen slipping to a 1.3% rate this year versus the prior estimate of 1.8%, and 2017 seen at 2.1% from 2.2%, which is another factor that could give the Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] pause.”

Higher interest rates will likely move stock prices to Support in my view giving us a second entry this year.  I’m looking forward to that.

Here is a look at the markets trend since February:

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One of the reasons mutual funds struggle to meet their benchmarks is because they lack real estate.  It’s an asset class that is often overlooked.  Not in my portfolio:

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I took a long position in VNQ at $74.56 on February 17, 2016.

The bond market is convinced that the Fed will not be increasing interest rates anytime soon.  Are bond investors ready for the next interest rate increase?

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The answer is NO.  I am not long BND.

In an uncertain earnings environment, I prefer investing in ETF’s over individual stocks.  I’m often asked for a Model Portfolio that can be left alone for the long-term yet provide the option to take 30% to cash at market tops and reinvest that 30% at market bottoms.  I am charging for that list of ETF’s and percentages to be invested in each.  The cost of my Model ETF portfolio is $150.

I still believe that trading profits and dividends will matter when we review our portfolios performance at year end 2016.

My new trading charts are now available to private investors as well as financial advisers in the financial services industry.  I will help you set up your computer to mirror mine, which includes the Chart Attributes at Stockcharts.com and many of my Watch List’s at Morningstar.com.  You will also get a chart that gives the investor 2 to 3 days warning of a change in market trend.   I will answer all your questions.  You will need a Basic Subscription to stockcharts.com.  Watch Lists are available at Morningstar.com for free.  I do charge $500 for this service.  Just reply to this blog and I will contact you.  I only use Leading Indicators never Lagging Indicators.  The MACD, RSI, and Stochastics are examples of Lagging Indicators.  Professional traders know that Lagging Indicators lose money.  Along with the use of all my favorite charts you will get my Model ETF Portfolio at no charge.

My blog is intended to be a supplement to my book Manage Your Own Money.  It is also meant to be educational in that I am showing you the tools I use to Manage My Own Money.  It is my intention to update my blog every 6 months.

Knowledge is power and there is nothing better than intellectual property!!  I use items numbered 1 through 9 below to determine whether to Buy, Sell, Hold, or do nothing each and every time I look at a Predictor Chart (C) 2008.  This is what I need to know in order to manage each investment within a portfolio.

1. Was the last Predictor signal a Buy or a Sell?
2. Is price at Double Top or Double Bottom?
3. Is Buying or Selling pressure ending?
4. Is their a change in $NYSI from red to black or black to red?
5. Is price at or near Support or Resistance?
6. Is there a tail at the top or bottom of the previous days candlestick?
7. Do I see a Divergence?
8. Is price Ranging or Trending?
9. Is price above or below its 9-day moving average?

Stocks, bonds, ETF’s, and mutual funds at the top of your Watch List in a Bull Market will be the same stocks, bonds, ETF’s, and mutual funds that will magically reappear at the top of your Watch List after a market correction.  It is important to know what is at the top of our moving averages before any correction because those names will climb back to the top as markets return to equilibrium.  Sectors rotate but the best names will return to their former glory.

Just remember that we make our money when we Buy not when we Sell so it is very important to wait for price to come to us.  Managing Your Own Money can be made easy.  The Predictor chart marks my Entry and my Exit point and is very easy to use.  I devote 25 pages to this wonderful Leading indicator in my book a must for every investor toolkit.  It is hard to Manage Your Own Money without using these tools.  It is hard and nearly impossible for anyone  to manage your money without these tools.

I would like to welcome all the new Manage Your Own Money investors to my blog.  If you have read Manage Your Own Money and would not object to taking a short quiz, I would be more than happy to send a bonus page outlining the 3 steps I go through before Entering and later Exiting a trade.  Many of my trading rules are discussed along with the differences between using the Daily Predictor vs. the Weekly Predictor.  Scroll down just past Authors Note and click on Post Your Best Ideas About Money Here then select General Questions and Comments to find the questionnaire.  Click on Reply to answer the questions to verify you have read the book and I will send you my personal Steps to the Trade.  Please check your email and/or junk email for my Steps to the Trade.

When my schedule permits, I will accept speaking engagements from financial organizations at their company conferences, investor associations, and local investment clubs.  Most will require an honorarium and travel expenses.

I would also like to extend best wishes and special thanks to Dr. Philip Coudron for his proofing expertise.

If you want to set up your Morningstar portfolio tracking to mirror mine then you will want to see the following columns left to right.  First select Portfolio and then select Customize My View.  Your settings on the right should read as follows:

Name, Ticker, Current Price ($), Price Change ($), Price Change (%), 1 Week Return (%), 4 Week Return (%), 3 Month Return (%), YTD Return (%), 12 Month Return (%), Cost Per Share ($), Gain/Loss Since Purchase ($), Dividend Yield (%) – Forward, Shares Held, Current Market Value ($)

You can access Morningstar’s website at this link: http://www.morningstar.com/

To watch a short video of Dan Clemons describing how he managed 401k plans click here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU-cuCFBWl8

This KBZY – Salem, Oregon aircheck has been uploaded nearly 6,030 times.  To hear Dan as a DJ on the radio July 3, 1967 click here:  https://archive.org/details/DanClemonsKBZY27.16

Everything important to know about money is included in my book Manage Your Own Money, which sells for $74.95  Autographed copies are available through me for $45.  I will pay for priority shipping within the US only.  

Some S&P 500 Predictor and Summation Buy and Sell History

Here is the history of Predictor Buys and Sells..

Daily Predictor Buy June 6, 2012  Weekly Predictor Buy June 14, 2012

Daily Predictor Buy April 24, 2012 Daily Predictor Sell on May 2, 2012

Daily Predictor Buy on November 29, 2011  Daily Predictor Sell on April 4, 2012

Daily Predictor Sell on October 31, 2011  Weekly Predictor Sell on November 1, 2011 and again on April 9, 2012 without a Buy in-between the two sells.

Weekly Predictor Buy on September 14, 2011  Daily Predictor Buy on October 4, 2011

Daily Predictor Buy on August 12, 2011  Daily Predictor Sell on September 2, 2011

Daily Predictor Sell on July 12, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on August 2, 2011

Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2011  Weekly Predictor Buy June 26, 2011.

Daily Predictor Sell on May 3, 2011  Weekly Predictor Sell on May 16, 2011.

Daily Predictor Buy on April 19, 2011 Weekly Predictor Hold on April 26, 2011.

Daily Predictor Buy on March 18, 2011.  Daily Predictor Sell on April 11, 2011.

Daily Predictor Sell on February 22, 2011. Weekly Predictor Sell on March 7, 2011.

Daily Predictor and Summation Buy on September 1, 2010  Daily Predictor Sell on September 29, 2010  Weekly Predictor Sell November 16, 2010

Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2010  Daily Predictor Sell on July 28, 2010 Summation Buy on June 11, 2010  Weekly Predictor Buy on June 16, 2010

Daily Predictor Sell March 25, 2010  The Weekly Predictor Sell April 30, 2010

Predictor Sell on January 20, 2010 – Daily & Weekly Predictor Buy on February 12 & 15, 2010

Predictor Sell on October 1, 2009 – Predictor and Summation Buy on October 8, 2009

Summation Buy on July 9, 2009 – Summation Sell September 22, 2009

Predictor Buy on March 11, 2009 – Predictor Sell on June 1, 2009

Predictor Buy on November 24, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on January 13, 2009

Predictor Buy on July 21, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on September 9, 2008

Predictor Buy March 17, 2008 – Predictor Sell on May 20, 2008

Dan Clemons author Manage Your Own Money

May 28, 2014 Posted by | Exit Strategy, Financial Planning, General Questons About Money, Investing in Bonds, Manage Money, Mutual Funds, Personal Money Management, Questions About Budgets, Questions About The Predictor, Technical Analysis, Trading Strategy, Trading System, Ways to save money! | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Authors Note: Donations to Charities

Royalties from the sale of Manage Your Own Money are used for charitable activities.  It supports charities that provide care for abused, sick, and injured animals.  In honor of Aerial, Piper, and Lindy donations are made each month.  Vickie and I thank you for supporting this important work with animals.  We dearly miss our beautiful Lucky Lindy #5 [1998 – 2011]  pictured with a little scrap of fabric he would turn in at the kitchen counter for a cookie.  It was like money in the bank for him.

My dream has always been to build a foundation of financial education for high school students.  Every high school senior should start his or her adult life with a sound financial education.  Book sales have increased to the point that some proceeds can now be directed toward this worthy cause that is also near and dear to my heart.

Thank you for helping me pay it forward by buying my book.

Daniel J. Clemons author Manage Your Own Money

To put The Predictor to work for you click here:

http://www.amazon.com/Manage-Your-Own-Money-professional/dp/1439202117/ref=sr_11_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1221072523&sr=11-1

Want an Exit Strategy to avoid corrections and bear markets?  The Predictor guides the investor in and out of positions with precision.

March 2, 2010 Posted by | Bonds, Exit Strategy, Financial Planning, Fixed Interest, General Questons About Money, Investing in Bonds, Manage Money, Mutual Funds, Personal Money Management, Questions About Balance Sheets, Questions About Bonds, Questions About Budgets, Questions About Mutual Funds, Questions About the Author, Questions About the book Manage Your Own Money, Questions About The Predictor, Questions about Wills and Trusts, Technical Analysis, Trading Strategy, Trading System | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Please share your ideas about money here..

Please post your name and town if you wish to share your best money making investment ideas.

Important Disclaimer

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.  Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors.  Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.  Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned on my blog may not be in the best interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested.  Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor.  The information contained on these pages does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision.  This material is not intended for any specific investor and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you.  Before acting on any recommendation on any material presented, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Investment Plan

Every Investment Plan should discuss the use of leverage.  Personally, I won’t use 100% leverage or 200% leverage.  It doubles risk or triples risk if leveraged by 200%.  The investor can make twice as much on the way up and lose twice as much on the way down.  It messes with Standard Deviation too.  I don’t deem it suitable for anyone’s portfolio.  Before I invest, I check for the use of leverage.  Notional investing also increases risk unnecessarily.  Investors who use a financial advisor would be wise to have a discussion surrounding the use of leverage including the use of margin in their accounts.  Leveraged investments should come with a warning label stating they can be hazardous to your financial health.  The whole idea behind investing is to achieve a greater return than the S&P 500 by taking less risk than the S&P 500.

Respectfully,

Dan Clemons

September 4, 2008 Posted by | General Questons About Money, Ways to save money! | , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

   

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