Welcome to my Manage Your Own Money Blog for 2017!!
Here is a good lock at the performance of the S&P 500 in 2016. It was a good year for the index, which gained 7.55%! From the February low of 1810.10, the S&P was up 23.68%.
I’m still long everything I bought on that February dip!! The S&P 500 climbed above it’s 50 day moving average and never looked back. I also added to positions on the November 9th Predictor Buy signal, which kicked off the Trump rally.
Here is a closer look at the Trump rally in the last 3 1/2 months of the year.
The Trump election should give the economy a real shot in the arm by lowering personal and corporate tax rates, repatriating corporate cash overseas, and a rollback of regulation. The high cost of regulations takes the free out of free enterprise. Our sub 2% GDP growth has kept a lid on stock prices since the summer of 2014 when Fed quantitative easing ended.
In my view, corporate revenue and earnings will be a second half 2017 story. How many times will the Federal Reserve increase interest rates? The market has priced in one increase while consensus among professionals are calling for two increases. The Fed is calling for three. Rising rates is a 2017 headwind.
Here is a look at the changes of trend that took place in 2016. Note the Double Top in May and July.
Real estate will be an important asset class even as their cost of capital increases with interest rates because along with higher interest rates comes inflation, which is a major driver of real estate values. I took a long position in VNQ at $74.56 on February 17, 2016.
REIT’s earned positive returns in 4 of 6 periods of rising rates and outperformed the S&P 500 in half of those periods so I’m not too worried about owning a market weighting in real estate.
I’ve been positive on oil all year long. I am long XLE at $56.56 on February 17, 2016.
In my view, Financials will benefit in a rising rate environment. I am long VFH at $43.27 again on February 17, 2016.
Because of the election, Investors shrugged off the Fed Reserves 25 basis point increase in interest rates in Q4.
Bonds will remain under pressure in 2017 in my view. Here is a look at what happened in 2016. I’m not long any bonds.
Here is a look at the direction of interest rates on the 30 year US Treasury. When interest rates rise the price of bonds go down to reflect the higher rate to a new buyer.
I see higher earnings in 2017 coming from Energy, Materials, Financials, and Information Technology. Global markets look attractive going into the new year too.
EEM is below it’s 200 day moving average and just above it’s 50 day MA. I am not long EEM.
Recession is always a risk to avoid. In my view, there will be no recession in 2017. The top 10% of wealthy Americas own 80% of the stock markets. That will change if president elect Trump gets his way by improving incomes earned by the middle class.
Gold moves opposite the stock market and is way oversold.
GLD ended the year at $1,096.10.
Economic expansion is now 90 months old. Bull markets don’t die of old age but they do die in recession or war. 2017 should be another year of up and downs. The key is to know what to sell at market tops and what to buy at market bottoms.
My current charts are now available to private investors as well as financial advisers in the financial services industry. I will help you set up your computer to mirror mine, which includes my Chart Attributes at Stockcharts.com and my Watch List’s at Morningstar.com. You will also get a chart that gives the investor 2 to 3 days warning of a change in market trend. I will answer all your questions. You will need a Basic Subscription to stockcharts.com. Watch Lists are available at Morningstar.com for free. There is a one time charge of $500 for this service. Just reply to this blog and I will contact you. Along with the use of all my favorite charts you will get my Model ETF Portfolio at no charge a $500 value all by itself. You also get to follow my trades for 6 months.
This is one of my go-to Predictor charts that you get:
My blog is intended to be a supplement to my book Manage Your Own Money. It is also meant to be educational in that I am showing you the tools I use to Manage My Own Money. It is my intention to update my blog every 6 months.
There is nothing more valuable that intellectual property. I use items numbered 1 through 9 below to determine whether to Buy, Sell, Hold, or do nothing each and every time I look at a Predictor Chart (C) 2008. This is what I need to know in order to manage each investment within a portfolio.
1. Was the last Predictor signal a Buy or a Sell?
2. Is price at Double Top or Double Bottom?
3. Is Buying or Selling pressure ending?
4. Is their a change in $NYSI?
5. Is price at or near Support or Resistance?
6. Is there a tail at the top or bottom of the previous days candlestick?
7. Do I see a Divergence?
8. Is price Ranging or Trending?
9. Is price above or below its 9-day moving average?
Stocks, bonds, ETF’s, and mutual funds at the top of your Watch List in a Bull Market will be the same stocks, bonds, ETF’s, and mutual funds that will magically reappear at the top of your Watch List after a market correction. It is important to know what is at the top of our moving averages before any correction because those names will climb back to the top as markets return to equilibrium. Sectors rotate but the best names will return to their former glory.
Just remember that we make our money when we Buy not when we Sell so it is very important to wait for price to come to us. Managing Your Own Money can be made easy. The Predictor chart marks my Entry and my Exit point and is very easy to use. I devote 25 pages to this wonderful Leading indicator in my book a must for every investor toolkit. It is hard to Manage Your Own Money without using these tools. It is hard and nearly impossible for anyone to manage your money without these tools.
I would like to welcome all the new Manage Your Own Money investors to my blog. If you have read Manage Your Own Money and would not object to taking a short quiz, I would be more than happy to send a bonus page outlining the 3 steps I go through before Entering and later Exiting a trade. Many of my trading rules are discussed along with the differences between using the Daily Predictor vs. the Weekly Predictor. Scroll down just past Authors Note and click on Post Your Best Ideas About Money Here then select General Questions and Comments to find the questionnaire. Click on Reply to answer the questions to verify you have read the book and I will send you my personal Steps to the Trade. Please check your email and/or junk email for my Steps to the Trade.
When my schedule permits, I will accept speaking engagements from financial organizations at their company conferences, investor associations, and local investment clubs. Most will require an honorarium and travel expenses.
I would also like to extend best wishes and special thanks to Dr. Philip Coudron for his proofing expertise.
If you want to set up your Morningstar portfolio tracking to mirror mine then you will want to see the following columns left to right. First select Portfolio and then select Customize My View. Your settings on the right should read as follows:
Name, Ticker, Current Price ($), Price Change ($), Price Change (%), 1 Week Return (%), 4 Week Return (%), 3 Month Return (%), YTD Return (%), 12 Month Return (%), Cost Per Share ($), Gain/Loss Since Purchase ($), Dividend Yield (%) – Forward, Shares Held, Current Market Value ($)
You can access Morningstar’s website at this link: http://www.morningstar.com/
To watch a short video of Dan Clemons describing how he managed 401k plans click here:
This KBZY – Salem, Oregon aircheck has been uploaded nearly 6,030 times. To hear Dan as a DJ on the radio July 3, 1967 click here: https://archive.org/details/DanClemonsKBZY27.16
Everything important to know about money is included in my book Manage Your Own Money, which sells for $74.95 Autographed copies are available through me for $45. I will pay for priority shipping within the US only.
Some S&P 500 Predictor and Summation Buy and Sell History
Here is the history of Predictor Buys and Sells..
Daily Predictor Buy June 6, 2012 Weekly Predictor Buy June 14, 2012
Daily Predictor Buy April 24, 2012 Daily Predictor Sell on May 2, 2012
Daily Predictor Buy on November 29, 2011 Daily Predictor Sell on April 4, 2012
Daily Predictor Sell on October 31, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on November 1, 2011 and again on April 9, 2012 without a Buy in-between the two sells.
Weekly Predictor Buy on September 14, 2011 Daily Predictor Buy on October 4, 2011
Daily Predictor Buy on August 12, 2011 Daily Predictor Sell on September 2, 2011
Daily Predictor Sell on July 12, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on August 2, 2011
Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2011 Weekly Predictor Buy June 26, 2011.
Daily Predictor Sell on May 3, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on May 16, 2011.
Daily Predictor Buy on April 19, 2011 Weekly Predictor Hold on April 26, 2011.
Daily Predictor Buy on March 18, 2011. Daily Predictor Sell on April 11, 2011.
Daily Predictor Sell on February 22, 2011. Weekly Predictor Sell on March 7, 2011.
Daily Predictor and Summation Buy on September 1, 2010 Daily Predictor Sell on September 29, 2010 Weekly Predictor Sell November 16, 2010
Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2010 Daily Predictor Sell on July 28, 2010 Summation Buy on June 11, 2010 Weekly Predictor Buy on June 16, 2010
Daily Predictor Sell March 25, 2010 The Weekly Predictor Sell April 30, 2010
Predictor Sell on January 20, 2010 – Daily & Weekly Predictor Buy on February 12 & 15, 2010
Predictor Sell on October 1, 2009 – Predictor and Summation Buy on October 8, 2009
Summation Buy on July 9, 2009 – Summation Sell September 22, 2009
Predictor Buy on March 11, 2009 – Predictor Sell on June 1, 2009
Predictor Buy on November 24, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on January 13, 2009
Predictor Buy on July 21, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on September 9, 2008
Predictor Buy March 17, 2008 – Predictor Sell on May 20, 2008
Dan Clemons author Manage Your Own Money
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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned on my blog may not be in the best interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. The information contained on these pages does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material is not intended for any specific investor and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation on any material presented, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Every Investment Plan should discuss the use of leverage. Personally, I won’t use 100% leverage or 200% leverage. It doubles risk or triples risk if leveraged by 200%. The investor can make twice as much on the way up and lose twice as much on the way down. It messes with Standard Deviation too. I don’t deem it suitable for anyone’s portfolio. Before I invest, I check for the use of leverage. Notional investing also increases risk unnecessarily. Investors who use a financial advisor would be wise to have a discussion surrounding the use of leverage including the use of margin in their accounts. Leveraged investments should come with a warning label stating they can be hazardous to your financial health. The whole idea behind investing is to achieve a greater return than the S&P 500 by taking less risk than the S&P 500.
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