Daily & Weekly Predictor January 2012

If your accounts reached an all time high in 2011 you have done well.  Here is a look at the S&P 500 over the last 12 months.

There was little money to be made in 2011 and doubt there will be much more in 2012.  The inability to control government spending will hurt economy’s around the world.  It takes a growing economy with full employment to pay down debt.

You can’t be a savvy investor without knowing if the market is over bought or over sold.

We are just entering over bought territory.  I see another Range Bound year ahead.  If I wait for a good Predictor entry I will make some trading profits along with some dividends and interest in 2012.

It was easier to lose money in 2011 than it was to make money.  Just look at all the red.

I was on-board for that beautiful rally in October.

When you write a book on investment methodology all authors wonder if their readers are able to easily understand their explanations.  Just this last week, I called Cynthia in New Jersey to answer a few questions.  She was well prepared having read the book twice and a little more and just before the call she sent me a list of well worded questions.  How a down market affects a Watch List was her first question.  I answered that by saying that the same stocks at the top of your watch list in an uptrend are the same stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs that will lead the way out of any contraction.  We talked about the Watch List in general and I just commented that I thought it was my greatest achievement.  She said, “Oh no, the Predictor is your greatest achievement.”  So, we talked about the Predictor for a few minutes.  For every question she asked me, I asked her one.  I wanted to know if she knew how to recognize buying and selling pressure and she told me I covered that very well in the book.  That impressed the tar out of me because that tells the investor what the market is going to do next.  The last few minutes of the conversation were a summary of everything that we talked about.  I came away from that conversation very impressed by her knowledge and understanding of my trading system having only read the book and my Steps to the Trade.   I felt so confident in her knowledge that I would be willing to give her some of my money to manage.  She was delightful and certainly made my day.  Cynthia asked if I was going to write another book and I told her the answer to that question is “NO.” Everything important to know about money is in the book.  Cynthia has studied the material and now it belongs to her.  I don’t know of anyone that can manage money better than Cynthia in New Jersey.  She is now a professional in every sense of the word.

The best performing sector on my Watch List is…. fanfare please?

I am long XLU and AEP.  There is always some money to made somewhere if you know how to use a Watch List.

Investors used their profits in gold to offset 2011 losses.

Some metal traders are looking for $1,300 an ounce as an entry.  I don’t see gold going that low.  I do see gold easily topping $2,000 in 2012.  Gold is a world currency.

I intend to continue to hold high yield bonds, commodities, gold, income REITs, and cash along with a few high yielding stocks as I am always looking for companies that reward shareholders by increasing dividends each year.  There will be plenty of volatility in 2012 to keep me busy.  Trading profits will be an important part of my strategy in the year ahead.

There is either man at work or money at work.  It is best to know how to Manage Your Own Money so you won’t have to work.

My next blog will be on February 3, 2012.

I would like to welcome all the new Manage Your Own Money investors to my blog.  If you have read Manage Your Own Money and would not object to taking a short test, I would be more than happy to send a bonus page outlining the 3 steps I go through before Entering and later Exiting a trade.  Many of my trading rules are discussed along with the differences between using the Daily Predictor vs. the Weekly Predictor.  Scroll down just past Authors Note and click on Post Your Best Ideas About Money Here then select General Questions and Comments to find the questionnaire.  Click on Reply to answer the questions to verify you have read the book and I will send you my personal Steps to the Trade.  Please check your email and/or junk email for my Steps to the Trade.

When my schedule permits, I will accept speaking engagements from financial organizations at their company conferences, investor associations, and local investment clubs.  Most will require an honorarium and travel expenses.

I would also like to extend best wishes and special thanks to Dr. Philip Coudron for helping me with my blog each week.

If you want to set up your Morningstar portfolio tracking to mirror mine then you will want to see the following columns left to right.  First select Portfolio and then select Customize My View.  Your settings on the right should read as follows:

Name, Ticker, Current Price ($), Price Change ($), Price Change (%), 1 Week Return (%), 4 Week Return (%), 3 Month Return (%), YTD Return (%), 12 Month Return (%), Cost Per Share ($), Gain/Loss Since Purchase ($), Dividend Yield (%) – Forward, Shares Held, Current Market Value ($)

You can access Morningstar’s website at this link: http://www.morningstar.com/

To watch a short video of Dan Clemons describing how he managed 401k plans click here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU-cuCFBWl8

This KBZY – Salem, Oregon aircheck has been uploaded nearly 4,356 times.  To hear Dan as a DJ on the radio July 3, 1967 click here:

http://limelinx.com/files/cb4421ced119a1e9397ed001f9132166

Everything important to know about money is included in my book Manage Your Own Money.  My publisher and the Amazon.com price is $33.49.  Autographed copies are available through me for $26 and I’ll pay for the shipping to US only.  I do see used copies for sale on eBay and Amazon.com for $90 to $256.62.  If you care to donate a book in your name to a high school senior please let me know.  Quantity discounts are available.

Manage Your Own Money is still available at Amazon.com.

http://www.amazon.com/Manage-Your-Own-Money-professional/dp/1439202117/ref=sr_11_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1221072523&sr=11-1

S&P 500 Predictor and Summation Buy and Sell History

Daily Predictor Buy on November 29, 2011

Daily Predictor Sell on October 31, 2011  Weekly Predictor Sell on November 16, 2011

Weekly Predictor Buy on September 14, 2011  Daily Predictor Buy on October 4, 2011

Daily Predictor Buy on August 12, 2011  Daily Predictor Sell on September 2, 2011

Daily Predictor Sell on July 12, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on August 2, 2011

Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2011  Weekly Predictor Buy June 26, 2011.

Daily Predictor Sell on May 3, 2011  Weekly Predictor Sell on May 16, 2011.

Daily Predictor Buy on April 19, 2011 Weekly Predictor Hold on April 26, 2011.

Daily Predictor Buy on March 18, 2011.  Daily Predictor Sell on April 11, 2011.

Daily Predictor Sell on February 22, 2011. Weekly Predictor Sell on March 7, 2011.

Daily Predictor and Summation Buy on September 1, 2010  Daily Predictor Sell on September 29, 2010  Weekly Predictor Sell November 16, 2010

Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2010  Daily Predictor Sell on July 28, 2010 Summation Buy on June 11, 2010  Weekly Predictor Buy on June 16, 2010

Daily Predictor Sell March 25, 2010  The Weekly Predictor Sell April 30, 2010

Predictor Sell on January 20, 2010 – Daily & Weekly Predictor Buy on February 12 & 15, 2010

Predictor Sell on October 1, 2009 - Predictor and Summation Buy on October 8, 2009

Summation Buy on July 9, 2009 - Summation Sell September 22, 2009

Predictor Buy on March 11, 2009 – Predictor Sell on June 1, 2009

Predictor Buy on November 24, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on January 13, 2009

Predictor Buy on July 21, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on September 9, 2008

Predictor Buy March 17, 2008 – Predictor Sell on May 20, 2008

Dan Clemons author Manage Your Own Money

Interest in Dividends – January 2012

Fitch Ratings forecasts the economic growth of major advanced economies to remain weak at 1.2% in 2012, followed by only a modest acceleration to 1.9% in 2013.  Compared with the agency’s previous Global Economic Outlook in October, Fitch Ratings has revised down its GDP forecasts over the entire forecast horizon to 2013.  The agency forecasts global growth, based on market exchange rates, at 2.4% for 2012 and 3.0% in 2013, compared with 2.7% and 3.1% previously.

Here is a look at the 30-year US Treasury in 2011.

I see interest rates remaining flat with little change in 2012.  Bonds should be okay to hold for the year and could very well out perform stocks.  Unfortunately markets will trade largely on news out of Europe.  Excessive government debt everywhere will remain a huge problem for investors.

Interest rates came down hard this year.

Long-term bonds are for the birds and bond traders.

US Tresury’s are safe but they come at a terrible yield and at a terrible high price.

With this kind of yield, a better use of money is to pay down debt.

Corporate bonds were Range Bound in 2011 and I expect that trend to continue in 2012.

High Yield bonds finished the year higher.

One of my favorite REIT is W.P. Carey and Co. WPC $44.26.

W. P. Carey & Co. LLC (W. P. Carey) provides long-term, sale-leaseback and build-to-suit transactions for companies worldwide, and manages a global investment portfolio.  WPC pays a dividend of $2.25.  They just announced their 43rd consecutive distribution increase.  I am long shares of WPC.

Stocks with dividends are the new bonds.  I have been saying that for quite some time and continue to believe that investors like myself will find dividend aristocrats among the best performers for as far as the eye can see.  Dividends will make up the lion’s share of performance in 2012 and beyond.

My next blog will be on February 3, 2012.

We’ll talk to you then.

Dan Clemons author Manage Your Own Money descendant of American Pioneers son of Clinton Clemons, son of Charles C. Clemons, son of John M. Clemons, son of William Clemons, son of Thomas Clemmons, son of Henry Clements 1737 Virginia

Authors Note: Donations to Charities

Royalties from the sale of Manage Your Own Money are used for charitable activities.  It supports charities that provide care for abused, sick, and injured animals.  In honor of Aerial, Piper, and Lindy donations are made each month.  Vickie and I thank you for supporting this important work with animals.  We dearly miss our beautiful Lucky Lindy #5 [1998 - 2011]  pictured with a little scrap of fabric he would turn in at the kitchen counter for a cookie.  It was like money in the bank for him.

My dream has always been to build a foundation of financial education for high school students.  Every high school senior should start his or her adult life with a sound financial education.  Book sales have increased to the point that some proceeds can now be directed toward this worthy cause that is also near and dear to my heart.

Thank you for helping me pay it forward by buying my book.

Daniel J. Clemons author Manage Your Own Money

To put The Predictor to work for you click here:

http://www.amazon.com/Manage-Your-Own-Money-professional/dp/1439202117/ref=sr_11_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1221072523&sr=11-1

Want an Exit Strategy to avoid corrections and bear markets?  The Predictor guides the investor in and out of positions with precision.

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Important Disclaimer

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned on my blog may not be in the best interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. The information contained on these pages does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material is not intended for any specific investor and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation on any material presented, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Portfolio Management – Updated October 2011

Take a look at these two funds on the chart below.  It looks like one fund is making money while the other one is losing money.  It also looks like if you owned both funds at the same time, you would make no money at all.  They seem to look like they move just the opposite of each other.  How could Wall Street get two funds that perform exactly the opposite of each other?

Both funds are the S&P 500.  One is a long position, which is the solid line.  The other is shown in candlesticks and is a short position.  Mutual funds are not easy to manage because they have early redemption fees and then there are taxes to consider.  So, how do you protect a portfolio when the market trend is down?  You can purchase SH an ETF that holds a short position in the S&P 500.  At Sell signals, rather than sell something, a portfolio can be shifted into neutral by simply adding SH.  Results will vary depending on the size of the portfolio and the amount of the short and how well the investments in the portfolio correlate with the S&P 500.  Please read the Disclaimer above before investing in anything you read about on this blog.  Do you see the two Divergences on the chart?  I would like to thank my good friend Chip Anderson at Stockcharts.com for the use of his beautiful charts in my book and here on my blog.  I would like to extend my hand to Craig Thompson, ChFC for first presenting this idea in 2005.