Special Announcements for Manage Your Own Money Investors.
I have constructed a new All-In-One chart that came to me when I was trying to figure out how to avoid a choppy market plus take market trend into account when looking at any symbol. It took all of one weekend to put it together. When I back tested to 2008, it produced only two losing trades. You only have to look at one chart in order to see everything you need to see to Buy or Sell. I would gladly share it with you but I have it under exclusive license to a Registered Investment Advisor in Aliso Viego, CA.
I also have constructed another chart that gives me two to three days notice of a pending change in trend. It too is under license. But everything else is in my book Manage Your Own Money.
Knowledge is power and there is nothing better than intellectual property!! I use 1 through 9 below to determine whether to Buy, Sell, Hold, or do nothing each and every time I look at a Predictor Chart (C) 2008. This is what I need to know in order to manage each investment within a portfolio.
1. Was the last Predictor signal a Buy or a Sell?
2. Is price at Double Top or Double Bottom?
3. Is Buying or Selling pressure ending?
4. Is their a change in $NYSI from red to black or black to red?
5. Is price at or near Support or Resistance?
6. Is there a tail at the top or bottom of the previous days candlestick?
7. Do I see a Divergence?
8. Is price Ranging or Trending?
9. Is price above or below its 9-day moving average?
Stocks, bonds, ETF’s, and mutual funds at the top of your Watch List in a Bull Market will be the same stocks, bonds, ETF’s, and mutual funds that will magically reappear at the top of your Watch List after a market correction. It is important to know what is at the top of our moving averages before any correction because those names will climb back to the top as markets return to equilibrium. Sectors rotate but the best names will return to their former glory.
Now, on with my blog..
My blog is intended to be a supplement to my book Manage Your Own Money. It is also meant to be educational in that I am showing you the tools I use to Manage My Own Money. It is my intention to update my blog every 6 months. I now publish some of my favorite charts each week here: http://www.financepins.com/
I only use Leading Indicators never Lagging Indicators. The MACD, RSI, and Stochastics are examples of Lagging Indicators. Professional traders know that Lagging Indicators lose money.
Weekly charts tend to be more accurate than short-term Daily charts. I always look to the Weekly S&P 500 chart to help me see the BIG picture. The market has been Trending, which is a series of higher highs and higher lows.
The percent up or down for the week is shown in the upper right hand corner. The chart also tells me if the market is Ranging or Trending and if the market is overbought or oversold.
The next chart I want to see is the S&P 500 Daily Chart of the S&P 500 [$SPX].
Price action is the primary reason to look at a Daily chart. I’m looking for Trends, Double Tops and Double Bottoms, Divergences, Buying Pressure and Selling Pressure, and Support and Resistance. It is important for investors who Manage Their Own Money to know if price is above or below the 9 period Simple Moving Average. Above is good and below is bad. The 9 ma is primarily used when the market is trending and does add confidence to long positions. If the market is Ranging, I use my Predictor chart.
Of all Leading indicators, this NYSE High-Low Index is the “most” Leading indicator posted at the end of each trading day. You can clearly see $NYHILO change ahead of the McClellan Oscillator shown in the background, which is also a Leading Indicator.
This is our Early Warning System. Right now it is telling us the market has been headed South since July. It too can give it’s own Buy signal and when it does I call it The Back up the Truck trade/entry.
The Summation Index also shows market trend. Green up and Red down.
I also consider the Summation Index a leading market breadth indicator. Note the change in trend on July 26th. Besides showing market trend, it also shows overbought and oversold conditions. At minus 600, I consider the market oversold, which tells me it is okay to get long with a Predictor Buy. We make our money when we Buy not when we Sell. Entry’s are very important. Almost every loss can be traced to a poor entry. Manage Your Own Money investors take profits at market highs so there is money to rebuild and refresh portfolios at market bottoms. Capital gains are best kept in our portfolios.
Although the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index wiggles, I put this important tool in my book for all investors to use. This market breadth indicator tells the investor if the market is overbought (above 65) or oversold (below 35). It also shows major turning points in the trend of the market.
You can clearly see $BPSPX is a Leading Indicator by a day or two over the Summation Index $NYSI.
Managing Your Own Money can be made easy. The Predictor chart marks my Entry and my Exit and is very easy to use. I devote 25 pages to this wonderful Leading indicator in my book a must for every investor toolkit. It is hard to Manage Your Own Money without using these tools. It is hard and nearly impossible for anyone to manage your money without these tools.
I would like to welcome all the new Manage Your Own Money investors to my blog. If you have read Manage Your Own Money and would not object to taking a short test, I would be more than happy to send a bonus page outlining the 3 steps I go through before Entering and later Exiting a trade. Many of my trading rules are discussed along with the differences between using the Daily Predictor vs. the Weekly Predictor. Scroll down just past Authors Note and click on Post Your Best Ideas About Money Here then select General Questions and Comments to find the questionnaire. Click on Reply to answer the questions to verify you have read the book and I will send you my personal Steps to the Trade. Please check your email and/or junk email for my Steps to the Trade.
When my schedule permits, I will accept speaking engagements from financial organizations at their company conferences, investor associations, and local investment clubs. Most will require an honorarium and travel expenses.
I would also like to extend best wishes and special thanks to Dr. Philip Coudron for helping me with my blog each week.
If you want to set up your Morningstar portfolio tracking to mirror mine then you will want to see the following columns left to right. First select Portfolio and then select Customize My View. Your settings on the right should read as follows:
Name, Ticker, Current Price ($), Price Change ($), Price Change (%), 1 Week Return (%), 4 Week Return (%), 3 Month Return (%), YTD Return (%), 12 Month Return (%), Cost Per Share ($), Gain/Loss Since Purchase ($), Dividend Yield (%) – Forward, Shares Held, Current Market Value ($)
You can access Morningstar’s website at this link: http://www.morningstar.com/
To watch a short video of Dan Clemons describing how he managed 401k plans click here:
This KBZY – Salem, Oregon aircheck has been uploaded nearly 6,030 times. To hear Dan as a DJ on the radio July 3, 1967 click here: N/A at the moment…
Everything important to know about money is included in my book Manage Your Own Money, which is on sale for $47.22. The regular price is $74.95 Autographed copies are available through me for $45. I will pay for priority shipping within the US only.
S&P 500 Predictor and Summation Buy and Sell History
Here is the history of Predictor Buys and Sells..
Daily Predictor Buy June 6, 2012 Weekly Predictor Buy June 14, 2012
Daily Predictor Buy April 24, 2012 Daily Predictor Sell on May 2, 2012
Daily Predictor Buy on November 29, 2011 Daily Predictor Sell on April 4, 2012
Daily Predictor Sell on October 31, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on November 1, 2011 and again on April 9, 2012 without a Buy in-between the two sells.
Weekly Predictor Buy on September 14, 2011 Daily Predictor Buy on October 4, 2011
Daily Predictor Buy on August 12, 2011 Daily Predictor Sell on September 2, 2011
Daily Predictor Sell on July 12, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on August 2, 2011
Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2011 Weekly Predictor Buy June 26, 2011.
Daily Predictor Sell on May 3, 2011 Weekly Predictor Sell on May 16, 2011.
Daily Predictor Buy on April 19, 2011 Weekly Predictor Hold on April 26, 2011.
Daily Predictor Buy on March 18, 2011. Daily Predictor Sell on April 11, 2011.
Daily Predictor Sell on February 22, 2011. Weekly Predictor Sell on March 7, 2011.
Daily Predictor and Summation Buy on September 1, 2010 Daily Predictor Sell on September 29, 2010 Weekly Predictor Sell November 16, 2010
Daily Predictor Buy on May 27, 2010 Daily Predictor Sell on July 28, 2010 Summation Buy on June 11, 2010 Weekly Predictor Buy on June 16, 2010
Daily Predictor Sell March 25, 2010 The Weekly Predictor Sell April 30, 2010
Predictor Sell on January 20, 2010 – Daily & Weekly Predictor Buy on February 12 & 15, 2010
Predictor Sell on October 1, 2009 - Predictor and Summation Buy on October 8, 2009
Summation Buy on July 9, 2009 - Summation Sell September 22, 2009
Predictor Buy on March 11, 2009 – Predictor Sell on June 1, 2009
Predictor Buy on November 24, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on January 13, 2009
Predictor Buy on July 21, 2008 – Position Closed by Summation Sell on September 9, 2008
Predictor Buy March 17, 2008 – Predictor Sell on May 20, 2008
Dan Clemons author Manage Your Own Money
Income is always “IN.” I don’t know any investor that is not interested in Income, do you? No retiree can say that he or she is not interested in more income. We all are. It is good to remember that capital gains are just another form of income.
This is where a Watch List can be used to great advantage. A Watch List tells me which ETF or Mutual Fund has the better bond portfolio. It can show me where the institutions and professionals are investing their money. Investing is all about following rivers of revenue.
I don’t invest in US Treasuries directly but do participate indirectly via money market accounts. When it comes to bonds, the only thing I care about is the direction of interest rates, which impact price of bonds more than any other single measure.
Three months is not enough time to spot changes in long-term rates. That is why I like to see Weekly charts.
Here you can clearly see interest rates are trending higher. Bond prices fall when interest rates rise.
I care more about the trend in interest rates than anything else. There will come a time when income investors are going to have to look elsewhere for yield. My Watch Lists are populated with attractive places to invest for yield. All along, I have been faring out investment vehicles that will not be adversely impacted by rising rates. I’ve been investing outside the bond box for quit some time.
Next, I like to see what Investment grade corporate bonds are doing. For that, I look at CORP on a Weekly chart.
Support is around $100. Here is a look at CORP on a Daily chart.
Here you can clearly see price rising, which means interest rates have been falling since September. Note the Double Bottom at 99.715/99.93.
Prices for high yield bonds follow the underlying stock price so it is important for me to get my Entry right.
I am not long CORP or JNK.
My Bond Watch List helps me see which bond or group of bonds are under accumulation by institutions. They know underlying risks better than anyone else. If you don’t know about money flow then you want to put Manage Your Own Money tools to work for you.
Charts help investors make smart decisions about their money.
With warm wishes,
Dan Clemons author Manage Your Own Money descendant of American Pioneers son of Clinton Clemons, son of Charles C. Clemons, son of John M. Clemons, son of William Clemons, son of Thomas Clemmons, son of Henry Clements 1737 Virginia
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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned on my blog may not be in the best interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. The information contained on these pages does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material is not intended for any specific investor and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation on any material presented, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Every Investment Plan should discuss the use of leverage. Personally, I won’t use 100% leverage or 200% leverage. It doubles risk or triples risk if leveraged by 200%. The investor can make twice as much on the way up and lose twice as much on the way down. It messes with Standard Deviation too. I don’t deem it suitable for anyone’s portfolio. Before I invest, I check for the use of leverage. Notional investing also increases risk unnecessarily. Investors who use a financial advisor would be wise to have a discussion surrounding the use of leverage including the use of margin in their accounts. Leveraged investments should come with a warning label stating they can be hazardous to your financial health. The whole idea behind investing is to achieve a greater return than the S&P 500 by taking less risk than the S&P 500.
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